关键词: 自回归滑动平均模型, 流行度预测, 在线电视剧, 时间序列, 共享参数

Abstract: With the rapid prevalence and development of online TV series (or teleplays), there is a novel research problem, predicting the popularity of online teleplays. The continuity of teleplay plots makes the popularity of adjacent episodes have a strong correlation. This paper extends the classical autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. Specifically, this paper considers two modeling strategies, namely multiple episodes and single day, and multiple episodes and multiple days. Both of them use the sharing parameter method to estimate the model parameters. This paper applies the root mean squared error (RMSE) as the evaluation measure, many experiments on a real-world dataset show that the above two strategies can reduce RMSE by 22.0% and 32.3% respectively.

Key words: autoregressive moving average model, popularity prediction, online teleplays, time series, sharing parameters